Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 7.794014 8.972356 10.244470 11.716900 13.371120 15.168992 17.267618
2025-12-28 6.235102 7.861774 9.756613 12.114356 14.955875 18.255715 22.362490
2026-01-04 5.378026 7.192960 9.412711 12.303637 15.942766 20.343215 26.034907
2026-01-11 4.601961 6.499534 8.926394 12.220271 16.531207 21.933633 29.160907
2026-01-18 3.995064 5.922084 8.485645 12.092624 16.974543 23.282093 31.964502
2026-01-25 3.547443 5.497799 8.187500 12.097254 17.550578 24.789958 35.008849
2026-02-01 3.206320 5.177696 7.987768 12.195403 18.225710 26.427658 38.267126
2026-02-08 2.866285 4.817709 7.689825 12.114533 18.622041 27.678454 41.028979
2026-02-15 2.567089 4.484821 7.395388 12.002471 18.945699 28.818713 43.661091
2026-02-22 2.351917 4.259566 7.238428 12.072578 19.522302 30.324449 46.853427
2026-03-01 2.220777 4.156080 7.257043 12.403386 20.493840 32.430385 50.983097
2026-03-08 1.997482 3.873894 6.965561 12.221578 20.662206 33.347064 53.391622
2026-03-15 1.725551 3.482540 6.468585 11.681710 20.250920 33.390069 54.527820
2026-03-22 1.637156 3.410827 6.500272 12.007983 21.228147 35.587980 59.012435
2026-03-29 1.538636 3.309068 6.469266 12.220935 22.023855 37.526522 63.159766
2026-04-05 1.402604 3.121264 6.270355 12.129214 22.305895 38.660350 66.087776
2026-04-12 1.276168 2.938193 6.063529 12.005502 22.519935 39.683884 68.867375
2026-04-19 1.179266 2.803993 5.934764 12.009004 22.944875 41.057756 72.248047
2026-04-26 1.103003 2.704296 5.862124 12.106919 23.533283 42.716345 76.141227
2026-05-03 1.012656 2.564538 5.700290 12.026425 23.798128 43.839839 79.188350
2026-05-10 0.927373 2.426237 5.529394 11.915124 23.997060 44.852528 82.077767
2026-05-17 0.868245 2.340305 5.456298 11.984768 24.523601 46.437613 85.972480
2026-05-24 0.838462 2.319315 5.514583 12.313481 25.540689 48.903498 91.437109